Maskirovka assets have been able to confirm the
departure of the Mercenary forces from Fletcher. Based on our estimates of
their forces deployed compared to MRBC assessments and verified intel, we can
state that the entire force is accounted for and that they have not left any
assets in play on-world. With the effective end of raiding operations, we can
now take stock of our losses.
1st Liao Guards
Total losses for the 1st Liao amount to two
companies of BattleMechs and two platoons of Battle Armour. Of these, 67% are
unrecoverable or completely destroyed. Fortunately, losses were entirely
confined to II Battalion, limiting the overall damage to command integrity.
Significant casualties include Pai-zhangs
Alan Weizhe and Jian Xing-Mei, both veteran officers. In addition, Sang-Wei Lo Biao-McTavish is missing in
action and assumed to have been extracted for intelligence gathering purposes
by the Mercenary or AFFS forces.
Furthermore, the 1st suffered substantial
losses in terms of supplies which will substantially hamper their rebuilding.
Current estimates place over 1780 tons of parts and ammunition either captured
or destroyed by enemy action. Shang-shao Eliot
Liao-Subramanya has estimates that it will take at least three months for the
unit to reach full operational strength assuming that it suffers no other
setbacks or attacks.
Reccomendations: Given the 1st's position on
the frontline of the conflict and proximity to two hostile borders (as well as Fortress
Republic) priority should be given to shipments of replacement parts and personnel.
Warrior House Ijori
Ijori fared better by the simple dint of having
less direct engagement with the enemy forces. Reports place Ijori's combat
losses at two augmented lances of BattleMechs and supporting conventional vehicles
as well as a single platoon of Battle Armour. Approximately 50% of these losses
are recoverable. As these losses were spread across different companies,
overall command integrity remains solid.
Of more concern are Ijori’s losses
in terms of supplies and support personnel. As of this writing, one hundred and
two technicians or other support personnel are dead as a result of the Fenris
Island incident, with another fifty-seven injured to varying degrees. In addition,
at least fourteen Ijori infantrymen or other combatants were also killed in the
incident.
To further complicate matters, of the materials
being prepared at Fenris Isle, 37% are completely destroyed and unrecoverable
and another 14% are damaged to varying degrees. Losses were most severe among
the cached munitions, small arms and Battle Armour, with heavy weapons and
IndustrialMech conversions the least affected.
Recommendations: Ijori's timetable of
operations is to be scaled back to allow the unit to recover, while targets
need to be reassessed. Given the nature of the Fletcher operations, it must be
assumed that the AFFS are aware of Ijori's plans and possibly their intended
targets. Cached supplies are to be redirected towards rebuilding both Ijori and
1st Liao Guards forces.
Fletcher Planetary Guard
Losses among the Fletcher Planetary Guard total
to a lance each of BattleMechs and SecurityMechs, a company of conventional
vehicles, a platoon of battle armour and four platoons of infantry. Of those
losses, approximately 50% are recoverable, primarily conventional vehicle
assets. Planetary Guard losses were limited simply because the raiders chose to
target the CCAF forces as a priority, while the planetary Guard showed a
notable reluctance to engage mercenary forces.
Compared to both CCAF units, the Planetary
Guard offered only minor supply and infrastructure losses. Unfortunately, many
of the planetary guard sites targeted by the attackers had been turned over to
the 1st Liao Guard or Ijori for their own use, further compounding their
losses.
Recommendations: The Fletcher Planetary Guard
is of low priority for rebuilding, and should be considered tertiary to
requirements. In addition, it is suggested that CCAF officers from the effected
units are to 'encourage' the planetary guard to 'donate' equipment, combat
vehicles and other assets to assist in the rebuilding of their commands.
Other Losses
Fletcher Industriplex Beta: Damage to the facility was primarily
confined to its outer fortifications and warehouses. While the outer walls were
compromised and four of the weapon turrets were destroyed or disabled, the
actual factories themselves were untouched during the operation. However, at
the same time, the AFFS forces were able to pillage both the factory and the
surviving warehouses, looting them of supplies and finished product, while also
damaging production machinery and equipment.
Current estimates place losses at three months
worth of stockpiled materials including BattleMech and combat vehicle parts,
Battle Armour, weapons and ammunition. In addition, it is estimated that it
will take another two months for the facility to again reach full production capability,
assuming that there are no further significant setbacks to recovery.
Returning the facility to full capacity is to
be given our top priority, however doing such will also require assistance from
the Sea Fox Clan in order to restore or replace damaged machinery and
Clan-specific technologies. Given the value of the factory and its output (and
being one of the few sources of Clantech production within the Confederation)
this is considered to be vital to future operations.
Fenris Keep: The sabotage to the
facilities in Fenris Keep resulted in wide-spread damage to the facility, both
in terms of the initial blast, the subsequent fire and efforts to contain it.
Losses to buildings and facilities are estimated at fourty percent, including
one of the major storage facilities and one of the logistical administration centers.
The main Mechbay and landing pads were untouched, however.
While the facility is repairable, its security
has definitely been compromised. Fenris Keep was chosen for its low profile, given
that it had been functionally abandoned for nearly a decade and had been
stripped of any useful materials. Given the nature of the incident, it must be
assumed that the AFFS will be aware of our use of the facility, and will
identify it as a CCAF asset. While this will not prevent us from using it in
future, it should not be used as a base for covert operations.
North Tide Docks: Damage to this facility was
severe, with numerous warehouses and other support equipment (eg cargo cranes) destroyed
or severely damaged by the mercenaries. Compounding losses, at least two
hundred tons of supplies were either destroyed or taken by the raiders. Given
that the primary reason for the use of this facility was covert movement of
supplies for Ijori operations, it us recommended that all operations be
terminated and remaining assets be relocated to more secure facilities.
Supply Depot 48-Bravo: Damage to this facility was
near complete. Substantial use of Inferno Munitions by the attacking force
resulted in severe damage to structures, which in turn spread across the base
during the course of the battle. Over 90% of supplies present were destroyed,
with none taken by the attacking force. Based on this, the facility has been
abandoned.
Baradin Island Prison Complex: The Baradin Island prison
suffered relatively light damage, primarily focused on its communications and administration
facilities. However, the attack allowed a mass breakout, with much of the
prison population rioting and effectively seizing control of the prison itself.
As such, the prison should be considered to be a complete write-off for now,
but may be recovered in future. Current plans are to starve out those inside, before
using the Fletcher Planetary Guard to secure the facility.
More important is the known presence of several
high-value prisoners that were released by the mercenaries. Given the level of
commitment to extracting these individuals, it is likely that some of them may
have actually been intelligence assets with valuable knowledge. Unfortunately,
given the level of damage to the facility's administration and the ongoing
situation, it will take some time to learn just what information was compromised
and at what level.
Other Concerns
Illegal BattleMech Dueling: While the existence of
Fletcher's BattleMech dueling circuit was known, the occupying CCAF forces
chose to do nothing about it. It is clear that the circuit was not seen as a
threat, while some of the 1st Liao Guard personnel on-world had become involved
in it to varying degrees as spectators or otherwise supporting it. The most extreme
case was Sang-Wei Lo Biao-McTavish,
an active participant in several battles. This, in turn, was used as a vulnerability
that allowed his extraction by mercenary forces.
Until this point, it is clear that there has
been a deliberate 'blind eye' turned towards this organization by our forces,
which has clearly been a failure on their part. This represents a clear vulnerability
that an enemy could potentially exploit in future. As such, it is strongly recommended
that we crack down on the circuit, both in terms of curtailing its operations while
also preventing CCAF personnel from supporting it in any way.
Wolf Clan Remnants: The primary reason for the
selection of Fenris Keep as the base of Ijroi's operations was its physical
isolation. Located on an island in the middle of a lake with only a single approach,
the structure should have been near impossible for a force to infiltrate.
However, not only did enemy personnel manage to infiltrate the facility and
sabotage it, but they were also able to escape afterwards.
Our analysis of the enemy battlefield
communications puts at least one Wolf warrior within their forces, possibly
two. Based on this, it is likely that the enemy were able to used information
from the native Wolf Clan population to gain access to Fenris. Up until this
point, we did not consider the few remaining Wolves to be a threat simply due
to how few there were and how marginalized they had become in the planetary
population. However, based on these events, we strongly recommend increased
monitoring of their population and movements.
Strategic and Tactical Failures
Analysis of the losses that we suffered paints
a very poor picture of our forces and their ability to respond to the
attackers. While the enemy did suffer losses of their own, they were almost insignificant
compared to ours. Furthermore, the mercenaries were able to operate with
impunity throughout their campaign
A number of factors made this possible. The
first is that the Mercenary forces conducted a mobile campaign, basing their dropships
in remote, heavily forested locations and taking advantage of the local weather
to help mask their movements. However, at the same time it own forces responded
very poorly to their operations, and made a series of mistakes that played to
the enemy's advantage,
The first represents a simple inability to
communicate. The 1st Liao Guards and Warrior House Ijori never coordinated
their actions or tried to create a unified front against the enemy. In turn,
both failed to utilize the Fletcher planetary Guard who, for their relative
inexperience and lack of equipment, were also far more familiar with the planet,
its geography and climate, and would have been instrumental in efforts to track
them down.
The 1st Liao Guards chose to maintain entirely
defensive operations, assuming that their superior equipment and on-site support
would give them an advantage against the enemy. Instead, the Mercenary forces
chose to use their mobility to their advantage, striking at the 1st
in limited engagements that lasted as long as they needed to hit their targets,
cripple or dive off the enemy forces and then disengage after looting what they
could. The 1st became purely reactionary, letting the fight come to them.
Conversely, Ijori chose to maintain a low
profile, focusing on their long-term operational goals at the expense of
short-term planning. The Ijori field commanders deiced it would be best if the
raiders remained entirely unaware of their presence, and decided to let the 1st
Liao and the Fletcher Planetary Guard shoulder the burden of stopping the
attackers. While Ijori's irregular forces could have been of great assistance
in locating and eliminating the mercenaries, instead they chose to leave those
forces on standby lest they be damaged before they could launch future
operations.
While it could also be argued that the Fletcher
planetary Guard showed a similar lack of initiative and unwillingness to engage
the enemy, in their case any attempts to do such would have been foolhardy. The
Fletcher planetary Guard lacked the experience and level of equipment of either
the Mercenaries or the two CCAF commands, and would have been outmatched by the
mercenary forces. Rather, their single greatest failure was instead their
decision to nothing at all, rather than attempting to coordinate with our units
to create a more coherent response.
Many of these mistakes can be bought down to
simple overconfidence on the part of our units. As one of the yingcan
de shizi commands, the 1st's operational experience has
been limited to operation GREAT FLOOD, which as seen it score a number of easy victories
against RAF holdouts and AFFS irregulars. The command is simply not used to
being on the defensive, and were unprepared for what would be needed to hold
such a vital world. Similarly, while the reborn Ijori are the masters of asymmetrical
warfare, they again work best on the offensive and became more focused on their
long-term operational goals then their immediate concerns.
These problems will need to be addressed as
CELESTIAL REWARD moves forward. While we have made great strides in striking
down the Federated Suns, we need to be ready for counter-attacks and whatever
other desperate efforts they might make to halt our advance. The Capellan
Confederation is poised to claim its destiny, but can only do such if each and
every citizen does their utmost to make it happen.
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