(I ‘borrowed’ this file
from our MIIO friends. While it’s not exactly helpful, I think it might
represent a small step towards cracking the greatest mystery of the age. And
right now, we need all the help we can get)
As of June 3132, the 12th Highland Gryphons were considered to
be a top-tier mercenary command. At the time, the unit consisted of a
combined-arms regiment with a MRBC A rating. The unit was rated as Veteran, and
had a long history of reliable service to its various employers. The unit was
equipped with top of rhe line technology, including a not inconsiderable degree
of Clantech. With a history going back to the SLDF, the unit had a long and
storied history.
All of these factors make the unit's apparent disappearance or
destruction during Grey Monday even more confusing. If the unit did desert,
then it would be a considerable break of character for such a storied and
trusted command. However, if it was destroyed, then this raises a lot more
questions as to who were able to launch such an attack and take on such a capable
command. A number of options present themselves, however, all of them seem to
be rather improbable. Each of these will be discussed below
Taurian Defense Force
The 12ths posting on Norman’s World was intended to deter
Taurian adventurism and raiding into the region. The removal of Protector
Urratia from office in 3128 had resulted in a substantial reduction of
hostility between the Condordat and the Federated Suns. However, the long history
of cross-border raiding and a feeling of bruised national pride on the part of
the Taurians were still considered to represent a threat. With the 12th in
place, any Taurian attack would either run into substantial resistance or risk
severe retaliation.
Based on this, as well as simple geographical proximity,
suggests the Taurian Defense Force as the most immediately likely source of an
attack. Elimination of the 12th would have been advantageous to the TDF by
removing a substantial force from their borders and opening up nearby worlds to
attack. However, in spite of those, a number of different factors suggest that
the Taurians were not responsible for the attack.
The first and foremost is simple operational strength. At the
time, the TDF had an operational strength of just over four BattleMech
regiments, but that overall strength was spread across numerous commands. In addition,
much of the TDF was still filled with older Technology, much of it Clan
Invasion or even Succession wars vintage. Furthermore, the overall experience
level and degree of readiness of the TDF was poor, putting them at a further
disadvantage against the unit
In order to field a force large enough to reliably overwhelm
and destroy the 12th, the TDF would need to mobilize a substantial portion of
its overall strength, combining several commands into a single assault. Even
accounting for the poor intelligence conditions caused by the HPG blackout,
there was no indication of unusual TDF troop movements, especially not on the
scale required. Furthermore, no TDF units are known to have suffered sudden, unaccounted
for losses that could have been the result of such an attack. Finally, given
the overall poor level of technology available to the TDF, any salvage taken
from the Gryphons would have been immediately pressed into service; however,
there is no evidence of any equipment coming from the command appearing in
Taurian service.
Finally, as noted, the change of government in the Concordat
had also resulted in an attempt to improve relations between the two stats, and
a ramping down of hostilities. In addition, the TDF had refocused its
deployment and operations away from raiding the Federated Suns and towards
defending against predation from the Capellan Confederation and pirate attacks
while attempting to rebuild its shattered strength. Any such attack would be
counterproductive to these goals.
Based on all this evidence, it is very unlikely that the
Taurian Defense Force is responsible for the attack.
Capellan Confederation
The Capellan Confederations’ long history of antagonism towards
the Federated Suns has been well covered. While their hostility had been
largely redirected towards the Republic of the Sphere, the Confederation still
regards the Federated Suns as its greatest traditional enemy. A number of factors
suggest the CCAF may have been behind the attack.
The first is that, even after the disarmament programs of the
early 32nd Century as well as the losses suffered in the Victoria War and the
Capellan Crusades, the CCAF still represented a large, well-equipped and well organized
fighting force. With numerous commands, the CCAF would have been able to muster
the force needed to destroy the 12th, while also boasting units with both the
level of training and technology needed to take on such a capable command.
In addition, the CCAF has a history of masking its unit's
movements and identities. Combined with the ability to call up reinforcements
from the Majesty of Canopus, it is possible that the CCAF were able to conceal
the troop movements needed for such an attack. Tracking such an exchange would
be difficult, especially given the unexpected drawback of losing HPG
communications.
However, for all this, there are several factors that suggest
that the CCAF may not have been responsible for such an attack. The first and
foremost is the location of the unit on Norman’s World. Well behind the
Capellan border, the planet is several jumps from the nearest Capellan world.
Travel to and from the Confederation would take several months, and require the
attackers to travel across both Federated Suns and Taurian space, which would represent
a substantial risk.
With the 12th being nowhere near the Capellan border, the benefits
form such an attack would be somewhat dubious for the investment of time and
forces required. Destroying a unit that would be at best a second-wave
reinforcement to any Capellan assault while also not posing any current risk to
Capellan forces offers very little benefit. Given this attack was a completely
isolated incident, it is hard to see what, if anything, the Confederation
gained from this attack.
Finally, as mentioned, the CCAF’s aggression at the time was
still focused towards the Republic of the Sphere and reclaiming it’s ‘stolen’
worlds. Any such pre-emptive attack would have been more likely aimed at the
Republic, specifically those worlds that they sought to reclaim. As such, whole
the CCAF would have the capacity to launch an attack like this, their
motivation for doing such is questionable at best.
(EDITOR’S NOTE: With the revelation
of the ‘Hidden Lion’ units, it is possible that this attack could have been
some sort of test for one of these at the time secret commands. Doing such on a
world that was far removed from the Capellan border would help conceal the
identity of the attackers and minimizing the risk of exposure. It’s still not
solid proof, of course)
Pirates
During their tour of duty in the Periphery March, the 12th had
been involved in several anti-pirate operations. During that time, they had
both fended off pirate attacks, while also hunting down several different groups.
In 3131, the unit had located and eliminated the Havoc Hounds pirate band,
including bringing back their leader to face justice for his crimes.
The location of the unit on Norman’s World would put it within
reach of several known pirate bands. However, save for that fact, there is very
little to suggest that the 12th were a victim of a pirate attack. None of the
nearby bands possessed the level of technology, the military strength or the
level of experience needed to overcome such a large and well equipped force.
While it is possible that several different bands could have formed an alliance
to launch such an attack, it would seem to be very unlikely and such a force
would probably lack command cohesion.
Finally, such an attack would again offer very little benefit
for such a substantial investment of time, effort and forces required. Destroying
a single mercenary command would be a very risky venture, especially compared
to the richer pickings offered by less-defended nearby periphery worlds. Based
on all this, the idea that a pirate force were responsible for the attack seems
to be very unlikely.
(EDITOR’S NOTE: While I
agree with many of the conclusions reached here, I thought I’d add a fourth
opinion based on our own active files. While it’s obviously anything but conclusive,
I felt that it’s worth mentioning)
“Lions”
The attack on Norman’s
World didn’t just take out the Gryphons. It also took out the planet’s HPG, and
specifically did such on Grey Monday. That in and of itself is enough to lead
me to suggest that the force that hit the planet was one of the so-called Lions
that were behind the Blackout, but I wanted to cover a few of the specifics.
What little we know of
the force itself is consistent with the Lion attacks. Common, widely used BattleMech,
Battle Armour and Aerospace Fighter designs that cannot be explicitly linked to
one origin (Warhammer, Black Hawk; Inner
Sphere Standard; Stingray); unmarked
troops with no clear origin; an attack aimed specifically at taking out the
HPG.
Where it deviates from
the standard is the destruction of the 12th. The (apparent)
destruction of the unit would seem to be unrelated to the attack on the HPG;
one would have been accomplished without the other. If they were targeting the
HPG, then destroying the 12th adds massive levels of complication to
the plan. Conversely, if they were targeting the 12th, then
destroying the HPG wouldn’t provide any immediate assistance to the attack.
This leads us to two
possible conclusions.
The first is that the two
were actually unrelated, and their simultaneous occurrence was the result of
happenstance. The two forces could have decided to cooperate in order to achieve
their goals while ensuring they remained out of each other’s way. Of course,
this not only requires a massive degree of coincidence (two forces hitting the
same world at the same time for unconnected reasons) but would also require a “Lion”
unit to communicate with an outside force, something that has not been recorded
to have happened otherwise.
The second is that the
destruction of the 12th was somehow beneficial to the Lions for
reasons that we can only guess at. While of little immediate value, this could
also prove to be beneficial in the long run. It could be something in their
history, in their personell or whatever else that the Lions saw as a threat or
didn’t like. And while that does give us a lot of ground to cover, it could
represent our first steps towards discovering their identity.
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